Our simulation suggests that a reduction of almost half of fatal crashes (56%) and injury crashes (46%) could be expected by replacing all LVs on the road with level-5 AVs. Estimates of the percentage of avoided crashes per user configuration and according to three selected (10%, 50%, 100%) replacement levels were made, as well as estimates taking into account the relative weight of these crash configurations, and considering fatal and injury crashes separately. We fictitiously replaced a certain proportion of light vehicles (LVs) involved in crashes by level-5 AVs, and applied crash avoidance probabilities estimated by a number of experts regarding the capabilities of AVs depending on specific configurations. Since level-5 AVs are not on the road yet, or are too rare, we simulated their introduction into traffic using a national database of all fatal crashes and 5% of injury crashes observed in France in 2011. We aimed to quantify, through simulations using real crash data, the number of potentially avoided crashes following different replacement levels of light vehicles by level-5 automated light vehicles (AVs).
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